Research and Markets: Switzerland Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013 Report: Total Wireless Subscribers in Switzerland to Reach 10.4 Million in 2013

Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/3cefcd/3q09_switzerland_m) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "3Q09 Switzerland Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013" to their offering.

Total wireless subscribers in Switzerland to reach 10.4 million in 2013 with Orange losing its market share to Swisscom and Sunrise over the next five years

Mobile Operator Forecast on Switzerland provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Switzerland's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Switzerland include: Swisscom AG, Orange Communications SA, and Sunrise Communications AG. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary:

Subscriber growth started to decline in Switzerland's wireless market

• +7.1% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009

Negative ARPU growth continues in Switzerland's mobile operator space

• -9.9% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber is stabilizing

• -0.9% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009

EBITDA declined at Swisscom and Sunrise Communications in the latest quarter

• -0.4% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009

So what is IEMR's Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Switzerland to reach 10.4 million in 2013

• We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Switzerland will increase from 8.68 million in 2008 to 10.44 million in 2013.
• All of the three major operators will see their numbers of subscribers increase over the next five years.
• Swisscom will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the country with 6.53 million subscribers in 2013.
• On the other hand, we forecast that Orange Communications will have 1.74 million subscribers and Sunrise Communications will have 2.17 million wireless subscriber accounts by the end of 2013.

Orange Communications will see its subscriber market share decline over the next five years

• Our model predicts that Orange's subscriber market share will decline from 17.8% in 2008 to 16.7% in 2013.
• Instead, we expect that Swisscom's market share will increase from 61.9% to 62.6% and Sunrise's market share will increase from 20.4% to 20.8% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

ARPUs in Switzerland will continue to decrease from 2009 to 2013

• Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU (Average Revenue per User) will decrease from CHF 57.21 to CHF 44.52 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
• At the operator level, we expect that Swisscom's monthly ARPU will decline from CHF 51.00 in 2008 to CHF 44.45 in 2013.
• In comparison, we expect that Orange's ARPU will decrease from CHF 61.74 in 2008 to CHF 48.61 in 2013.
• Given the latest quarter numbers, we expect that Sunrise will lower its ARPU level significantly over the next several years. Our model predicts that Sunrise's monthly ARPU will fall from CHF 58.00 in 2008 to CHF 41.32 in 2013.

Profitability will remain stable in Switzerland's mobile operator space over the next several years

• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain at approximately 43% from 2009 to 2013.
• Swisscom will continue to enjoy much higher EBITDA margins than Sunrise Communications. We think that Swisscom's EBITDA margin will remain above 48% while Sunrise's EBITDA margin stays in the range of 26% - 28% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

• Swisscom AG
• Orange Communications SA
• Sunrise Communications AG

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: Mar 2003 - Mar 2011

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/3cefcd/3q09_switzerland_m