10 Likely Events of 2008

Featuring

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  Move Over, Nostradamus

  BusinessWeek writers and editors put their minds together and envisaged 10 events they're pretty sure will happen in the next 12 months.
  
  Their call about crude oil prices has already come to pass. Click through our gallery to see what else they predict is likely to happen in 2008.
  
  Article: BW's Prognostications
  
  Next: Prediction No. 1

  More on 2008 From BW:

  Cars We Can't Wait to Drive

  Innovation Predictions

  10 Things That Won't Happen

• smoke stacks

  AP

  Prediction No. 1:

  Green Crisis
  There will be a backlash in the green movement after it becomes clear that many of the companies claiming to be green are in fact nothing of the sort. Businesses that proclaim they are "carbon neutral" will find that such proclamations no longer carry much weight among far more skeptical media and consumers.
  
  
  
  Next: Prediction No. 2

  More on 2008 From BW:

  Cars We Can't Wait to Drive

  Innovation Predictions

  10 Things That Won't Happen

• airplane in sky

  Nick Dolding, Photographer's Choice/Getty Image

  Prediction No. 2:

  Airline Consolidation Begins
  At least one major U.S. airline will buy another in 2008. The most likely scenario is that Delta Air Lines will go after Northwest Airlines, United Airlines, or JetBlue Airways. When that happens, others will scramble to cut their own deals. Certainly, no airline wants to be left stranded as a solo operator if Clinton or Obama ends up President & taps the brakes on industry consolidation.
  
  Next: Prediction No. 3

  More on 2008 From BW:

  Cars We Can't Wait to Drive

  Innovation Predictions

  10 Things That Won't Happen

• Michael Bloomberg

  Evan Agostini, AP

  Prediction No. 3:

  Bloomberg's Historic Run
  Michael Bloomberg will enter the Presidential race in February, after it becomes clear which nominees will get the nod from the major parties. His billions and organization will impress voters and stun rivals. But Bloomberg will come up short, as he comes in for withering attacks from both Democrats and Republicans. He and Clinton will split more than 50% of the votes, but John McCain will end up President.
  Next: Prediction No. 4

  More on 2008 From BW:

  Cars We Can't Wait to Drive

  Innovation Predictions

  10 Things That Won't Happen

• Compact Disc

  Prediction No. 4:

  Bye-Bye CDs
  The music industry is in crisis. The key reason is that CD sales are plummeting. Now, it's going to get worse. This year, the most important retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores and Best Buy, will look to radically downsize their CD sections -- perhaps to no more than one aisle, chock-full of mainstream pop titles. Digital music will continue to grow in influence, from iTunes, Amazon, imeem, Pitchfork & more.
  Next: Prediction No. 5

  More on 2008 From BW:

  Cars We Can't Wait to Drive

  Innovation Predictions

  10 Things That Won't Happen

• Man using keyboard

  Prediction No. 5:

  Facebook Fatigue
  Social network fatigue will set in as people tire of getting yet another invitation from so-called friends to join yet another social network. And, in the wake of Facebook's fumbled social ads initiative, it will become even more apparent there's no obvious way to pitch products without turning off members. Social features will wend their way into all kinds of Web services, but the gold rush in social networks will wane.
  Next: Prediction No. 6

  More on 2008 From BW:

  Cars We Can't Wait to Drive

  Innovation Predictions

  10 Things That Won't Happen

• watching TV

  Prediction No. 6:

  Finally, Internet TV
  For years, gearheads have dreamed of getting all that video from the Internet onto the big 52-inch screen in the den. But it's a pain. Look for that to change in '08. While Apple TV has been a dud, Steve Jobs & Co. will make an aggressive play this year. Perhaps Apple will even make a gorgeous TV itself, with all the necessary Net capabilities inside. And if Apple can't do it, someone else will.
  
  Next: Prediction No. 7

  More on 2008 From BW:

  Cars We Can't Wait to Drive

  Innovation Predictions

  10 Things That Won't Happen

• Siemens

  Uwe Lein, AP

  Prediction No. 7:

  Biggest Bribe Penalty Ever
  German electronics giant Siemens will agree to pay more than $1 billion in fines to avoid prosecution by the SEC and the U.S. Justice Dept. on charges it paid hundreds of millions in bribes to win foreign contracts. The fine will shatter the previous record fine. Siemens will also agree to allow compliance monitors to set up shop in its Munich headquarters.
  
  Next: Prediction No. 8

  More on 2008 From BW:

  Cars We Can't Wait to Drive

  Innovation Predictions

  10 Things That Won't Happen

• wall street broker

  AFP/Getty Images

  Prediction No. 8:

  Web Crash 2.0
  If a recession finally hits, Web 2.0 companies will find there are neither enough ad dollars out there for all of them to survive on, nor enough big corporate buyers to buy them all out. What's more, venture capitalists may decide that momentum looks better for clean-tech investments than for Web startups. So more will join the "DeadPool," as the Web startup blog TechCrunch calls its list of failed companies.
  Next: Prediction No. 9

  More on 2008 From BW:

  Cars We Can't Wait to Drive

  Innovation Predictions

  10 Things That Won't Happen

• gas station prices

  Paul Sakuma, AP

  Prediction No. 9:

  Crude Oil Will Top $100
  When will the world see $100-per-barrel oil? Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital, is betting that 2008 will be the year. Horsnell bases his prediction on broad fundamentals in the industry, which he says are reflected in the behavior of the futures curve for oil prices. (Update: Crude oil futures hit $100 a barrel for the first time on Jan. 2)
  Next: Prediction No. 10

  More on 2008 From BW:

  Cars We Can't Wait to Drive

  Innovation Predictions

  10 Things That Won't Happen

• fingers on keyboard

  Prediction No. 10:

  Big Brother Fears Return
  For a decade, a Net-happy world has cheerfully shared personal information online, with relatively little mainstream concern over privacy. Now, the issue may come to the fore, as carriers and cable companies deploy click-tracking software and publicity about China's Olympian Internet oversight leaks into the news.
  
  
  
  Next: More to Watch in '08

  More on 2008 From BW:

  Cars We Can't Wait to Drive

  Innovation Predictions

  10 Things That Won't Happen

• Bill Gates

  Samaruddin Stewart

  More From BusinessWeek:

  People to Watch in 2008
  Now that you've gotten a taste of what events you can expect to see this year, check out BW's picks for which key figures will play a significant role in shaping the worlds of business, finance and economics.
  
  · People to Watch in 2008
  
  
  
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  Cars We Can't Wait to Drive

  Innovation Predictions

  10 Things That Won't Happen

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