Retailers report solid gains in key figure for Jan

By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO

posted: 5 DAYS 4 HOURS AGO

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NEW YORK -Wealthier shoppers went on a buying binge in January and even middle-income Americans spent a little more, retailers said Thursday. Some chains reported their brightest monthly results in years.

The prospects for many stores' fourth-quarter profit also brightened further. Macy's, Gap Inc., Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. and others raised their outlooks Thursday, because they weren't stuck with mounds of holiday leftovers they needed to clear out.

The strong performances offered a nice finish to the industry's fiscal year, which typically ends in January, but the increases came partly because the same period last year was so dismal.

"It ties a nice bow around the fourth quarter," said Bryan Eshelman, managing director in the retail practice of AlixPartners, a global business advisory firm.

But Eshelman and other analysts worry that shoppers grappling with high joblessness and tight credit will now take a break, and the first quarter could be more gloomy for stores.

"The jobs are not there, the unemployment rate is high, and consumers are saving more of their income," Eshelman said. "My guess is that they'll be taking a breather."

Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, said January's comparison of sales at stores open at least a year was encouraging. It shows consumers are "tiptoeing back, though they haven't dramatically changed their shopping patterns."

The figure is considered a key indicator of a retailer's health because it excludes the effects of stores that open or close during the year.

Even Abercrombie & Fitch, which had seen its teen customers defect to less expensive alternatives, reported its first increase since April 2008.

The ICSC's preliminary index for retail sales overall rose 3 percent, compared with a 4.6 percent drop a year ago. The increase builds on a 3.6 percent rise in December and is well above ICSC's forecast for a 1 percent gain.

Overall, mall-based clothing chains enjoyed a 6.4 percent gain for January, the best performance since March 2007, when it rose 7 percent. But this January's figures are a comparison against a month — January 2009 — when the index fell 14 percent for clothing stores.

The ICSC index and forecasts exclude Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, which stopped reporting its sales monthly last year.

Niemira expects the index to rise 2 percent for February, and he's sticking with his annual growth forecast of 3 percent to 3.5 percent. That would be the strongest showing since 2006, when the pace was 4.8 percent. The average monthly change in 2009 was a 1.9 percent drop.

Luxury chains such as Nordstrom Inc. and Saks Inc. had gained the most, zooming past Wall Street expectations.

J.C. Penney Co., Stage Stores Inc. and teen retailer Wet Seal suffered declines. Target Corp. and Costco Wholesale Corp. reported only modest gains, excluding gasoline sales.

January's strength came despite poor weather and limited racks of holiday clearance items.

January is the least important month of the year on retailers' calendar as stores use the period to clear out winter merchandise and bring in spring goods. For the holiday season, stores ordered so conservatively that they ended December with relatively little extra inventory — and less than usual to mark down in January.

As a result, some stores pushed up deliveries of spring items, and Lazard Capital Markets analyst Todd Slater said his network of consultants across the country reported that shoppers bought some spring items at full price. Hot sellers included $200 jeans and $100 Ugg sneakers, he said.

Raising concerns among economists was the U.S. Labor Department report issued Thursday showing the number of workers filing initial claims for jobless benefits rose unexpectedly last week, evidence that layoffs are continuing and jobs remain scarce.

The rise was the fourth in five weeks. Most economists had thought claims would resume the fall's and winter's downward trend.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters estimate the unemployment rate remained around 10 percent in January.

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AP Economics Writer Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington contributed to this report.

2010-02-05 00:03:45