Earnings preview: Aetna to report 3Q earnings

posted: 30 DAYS 4 HOURS AGO

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INDIANAPOLIS -Aetna Inc., the third-largest managed care company as measured by enrollment, reports third-quarter earnings Thursday before the market opens. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the Hartford, Conn.-based insurer.

OVERVIEW: Swine flu, rising unemployment rates and health care reform are among the issues driving results at health insurers as they report third-quarter earnings.

Aetna rival UnitedHealth Group Inc. said last week that enrollment in employer-sponsored health plans has fallen as companies continue to cut jobs or trim health benefits. The company also said it spent $60 million in the third quarter on swine flu costs, up from $50 million the quarter before.

In the second quarter, Aetna saw its medical enrollment rise 9 percent to 19.1 million. But the insurer's profit sank 28 percent, and medical costs rose faster than the company expected.

Aetna officials said they had seen a change in behavior with providers increasing the amount of work they do on patients per diagnosis to squeeze out more revenue. But analysts following the company also said they felt Aetna set prices too low this year.

In July, Aetna reduced its 2009 adjusted profit outlook to between $2.75 and $2.90 per share from a prior forecast of $3.55 to $3.70 per share.

Health care reform is another issue hanging over insurance stocks, with share prices frequently rising and falling based on the latest developments to emerge from the debate in Washington, D.C.

BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect third-quarter earnings of 66 cents per share on $8.68 billion in revenue.

ANALYST TAKE: "This quarter, we see significantly diminished downside risk to earnings given the strong pricing actions the company has implemented across most markets as well as the lower bar to earnings targets with reductions to guidance," Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Borsch wrote in a recent note to clients.

WHAT'S AHEAD: Louisville, Ky.-based Humana Inc. and Philadelphia-based Cigna Corp. will be the last of the largest, publicly traded health insurers to report earnings next week.

STOCK PERFORMANCE: Aetna's stock price rose 9 percent in the quarter to close at $27.83 on Sept. 30. The Standard & Poor's 500 index climbed 14 percent during the quarter.

2009-10-27 15:05:57